Why Two Claremont CMAs Can Come Back Different

A homeowner asks two agents for an opinion of value and receives two different answers. The natural conclusion is that one of them is wrong. Sometimes that is exactly right. Often it is not, and understanding why is the difference between choosing well and choosing the highest number.

A valuation is an argument, not a measurement

Start here, because everything else follows from it. Weighing a package is a measurement. Estimating what a house will sell for is an argument built from evidence, and reasonable people working carefully from the same evidence can reach somewhat different conclusions.

That is not a flaw in the process. It is what the process is. The output of a comparative market analysis is a broker opinion of value, and the word opinion is doing real work in that phrase.

So the useful question is never simply which number is higher. It is which argument is better supported.

The legitimate reasons for a difference

Different comps were selected

The largest source of variation, by a distance. In a small market with limited turnover there is rarely one obvious set of comparable sales, and two analysts can choose differently and both be defensible. Which sales are chosen largely determines where the number lands, which is why the selection matters more than any later arithmetic. The discipline behind it is set out in how to read Claremont comps.

Different adjustments were applied

Even from identical comps, two people can weigh a layout drawback, a lot difference, or a condition gap differently. These are judgments informed by experience with local sales, not values pulled from a table.

One person actually saw the house

A valuation prepared from public data and photographs is a different product from one prepared after walking the property. Condition, layout, orientation, noise, and the usability of outdoor space are not fully visible in a listing record. This alone can account for a substantial gap.

Different date ranges

One analysis may lean on the most recent sales; another may reach back to include more evidence. Both approaches are defensible, and they will not always agree.

They were asked different questions

What a home would likely sell for in a normal marketing period is a different question from what it would fetch with an unusually short timeline, or on an as-is basis with no preparation. If the assumption was not stated, the two answers may not be answers to the same question at all.

The illegitimate reason

And then there is the one that is not a difference of judgment. An inflated opinion of value, offered to win a listing, with the expectation of walking the seller down after a few quiet weeks on the market.

It is recognizable. It arrives as a number with little supporting evidence, or with comps that are conspicuously flattering and not much discussion of the property's actual drawbacks. It is confident where the evidence is thin.

The cost is real. A property launched above the market spends its strongest window, when the buyers watching that segment all look at once, being ignored. The corrected price is then presented to a smaller and more skeptical audience.

How to tell the arguments apart

Ask to see the work rather than the conclusion:

• Which sales were used, and where is each one
• Why those and not others that sold nearby
• What was adjusted, in which direction, and on what basis
• What weaknesses this house has, in the analyst's view
• How much recent local evidence there actually is
• What assumption about timeline and preparation the number rests on

An analysis that names the property's drawbacks unprompted is usually the more trustworthy one. Anyone can produce a number; being specific about what is uncertain is harder and more useful.

Where the appraiser fits

A comparative market analysis is not an appraisal, and neither is a substitute for the other. An appraisal is a formal opinion of value prepared by an independent, state-licensed appraiser under a defined assignment, most often for a lender. A CMA is a broker opinion of value prepared to inform a listing or purchase decision.

They can differ, legitimately, because they are produced for different purposes under different rules. That distinction is worked through in appraised value vs. market value in Claremont.

What to do with two answers

Do not average them, and do not simply take the higher one. Read both arguments and see which one holds up. If one used comps you can see are a poor match for your house, that tells you something. If one skipped the walkthrough, that tells you something too.

And if the spread is wide and both arguments seem thin, that is a signal that the local evidence may genuinely be scarce right now, in which case what you want is honesty about the uncertainty rather than false precision.

Mr. Claremont prepares a comparative market analysis, a broker opinion of value, and will show the comps and the reasoning behind it, and coordinates an independent, state-licensed appraiser when a formal appraisal is required. Assessed values come from the Los Angeles County Assessor.

The rest of the series is on the Claremont home values hub, and the natural next read is how a Claremont home valuation is built, step by step.

Anthony Grynchal has been licensed in California since November 2009.